Literature Review Of Forecasting And Definitions Business Essay

Literature Review Of Forecasting And Definitions Business Essay Forecasting is supposed to be one of the oldest management activities. In biblical times there were frequent allusions to clairvoyants and prophets. Nowadays it is becoming increasingly necessary for companies to make forecasts; those that do not give the prospect to their competitors a clear advantage. No forecasting is a main cause of most of todays business failures. In the past, goods could be sold on company reputation alone and forecasting was not too important. In todays more competitive times, sentiment does not apply, and firms that do not challenge their selves to make an accurate forecast on which to base their future production will find it increasingly difficult to survive (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Forecasting is important for many aspects of the modern business. Organisations make plans which become effective at some point in the future so they need information about prevailing circumstances (Waters, 2003). This information must be forecast; but unfortunately forecasting is a difficult situation and despite its importance, progress in many areas has been limited (Waters, 2003). According to literature forecasting can be defined: Forecasting is predicting, projecting, or estimating some future event or condition which is outside an organizations control and provides a basis for managerial planning (Golden J. et.al, 1994, p.33) Forecasting is generally used to predict or describe what will happen (for example to sales demand, cash flow, or employment levels) given a set of circumstances or assumptions (Waddell D., et.al, 1994, p.41) Forecasting is a projection into the future of expected demand, given a stated set of environmental conditions (Mentzer J.T. Moon M.A., 2005, p.9) 2.3 Importance of Forecasting Todays globalized business market, the systematic move from push to pull manufacturing, and the rise in consumer oriented economies, have led to a much more complex forecasting world (Lapide, 2006). Forecasters are being asked to create plans for expanding geographies, increased numbers of sales channels, and broader, more diverse, and shorter life cycle product lines. This complexity means that markets are more dynamic and the business environment is not stable (Lapide, 2006). The importance of forecasting is finding in a great range of planning and decision making circumstances. It is essential to mention those perspectives that forecasting can become a useful tool for management in many departments of an organization. In marketing, a great amount of decisions can be improved significantly by connect them with dependable forecasts of market size and market characteristics (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Having this in mind for example, a company that produces and sells electrical devices should be able to forecast what the demand will be for each of its products by geographic region and type of consumer (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). In production an essential need of forecasting is the area of product demand. This relates with the both prediction of volumes mix so as the organization can plan its production schedule and organize appropriate its inventories (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Another area that the recent years have linked a lot with forecasting is finance and accounting. These departments must forecast cash flows and the rates at which various expenses and revenues will occur if they are to maintain company liquidity and operating efficiiency (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Due to the nowadays difficult economic conditions that the whole business markets face up the importance of forecasting has become more imperative than ever. Marketing practitioners regard forecasting as an important part of their jobs. For example, in Dalrymple (1975), 93% of the companies sampled pointed out that sales forecasting was one of the most critical aspects, or a very important aspect of their companys success. Also Jobber, Hooley and Sanderson (1985), in a survey of 353 marketing directors from British textile firms, found that sales forecasting was the most common of nine activities on which they reported (Armostrong J. S. et. al, 2005). Moreover Dalrymple (1987), in a survey among 134 US companies, found that 99% prepared formal forecasts when they developed written marketing plans. Winklhofer et. al (1996) notes some basic factors that the importance of forecasting has become widely essential for the organizations in recent years: The increasing complexity of organizations and their environments led to difficulties for decision makers to take account of all the factors relating to the future growth of the organization into account; Organizations have moved towards more systematic decision making that contains explicit justifications for individual actions, and formalized forecasting is one way that these actions can be maintained; The development of the forecasting methods has enables not only forecasting experts but also managers to become familiar with these techniques. 2.4 Forecasting Methods Moving on, the next step is to present and to analyze the forecasting methods. Forecasting methods can be divided in three basic categories: a) Quantitative or Statistical b) Qualitative or Judgmental c) Time Horizon 2.5 Quantitative or Statistical Quantitative Forecasts base on mathematical models and suppose that past data and other relevant factors can be combined into reliable predictions of the future (The Journal of Business Forecasting, fall 2000). In preparing a quantitative forecast it should begin with a number of observed values, past data, or observations (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). These observations may represent many things, from the actual number of units sold to the cost of producing each unit to the number of people employed (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Quantitative Forecasts can be divided into two alternative options; projective and casual. 2.5.1 Projective Methods These methods rely on historical data and they are known as time-series. These can be used to discover systematic, seasonal deviations in the data, cyclical patterns, trends and growth rates of the trends (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.162). Time-series analyze the data to find out which patterns exist and then develop a suitable forecast equation (Mentzer T. and Mark A.M., 2005). The main forecasting techniques included in this category are moving averages, exponential smoothing and a model for trend and seasonality. A short review of these methods follows. Moving Average Moving average takes account of the calculation of the average of the sample and then forecast the next period having as a driver this average. This is a proper method in order to predict from a series of data which has shown regular historical patterns and where there is a long series. Also they are suitable of predicting seasonal sales but they cant predict accurate rapid modifications in markets. Exponential Smoothing Exponential smoothing is the most popular and cost effective of the statistical methods. It bases on the principle that the latest data should be weighted more heavily and smoothers out cyclical variations to forecast the trend (Armostrong J. S. et. al, 2005). It relies on the idea that as data gets older it becomes less relevant and should be given less weight (Waters, 2003). In order to make this calculation it is needed the old average, the actual new demand and a weighting factor (Wild, 2002). Model for seasonality and trend The techniques that have been discussed so far have assumed that the basic underlying pattern of the past sales data has been horizontal. Waters (2003) proposes a model for use under some specific circumstances such as seasonality and trend in the demand. Demand can be divided in separate parts and more specifically: a) underlying value, which characterizes the main demand that should be adjusted for seasonality and trend b) trend which is the change in demand, c) seasonality which is the cyclical variation around the trend and finally d) noise which is a random effect. 2.5.2 Casual Methods The core assumption behind the casual methods is to use refined and specific information concerning variables to develop a correlation between a lead event and the event being forecasted (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.162). The idea based on the hypothesis that there is a discernible relationship between the forecasted variable and a measurable independent variable (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). A typical example of casual methods is regression method. Regression Method By using a regression method the demand forecast is based on a relationship of one event to another. The use of regression method requires a large amount of data for the forecast variable and the casual variables. 2.6 Qualitative or Judgmental Qualitative Forecasts (The Journal of Business Forecasting, fall 2000) are based on opinions, knowledge and skills rather than more formal analysis. They are used where there is no historical data. These types of forecasts are one of the simplest and widely used forecasting approaches available (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Its core idea rely on the corporation of the executives by discussing and deciding as a group what their best estimate for is for the item to be forecast (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). The most important judgmental methods are Delphi, Market Surveys and Historical Analogy. Delphi In the Delphi method at least two rounds of forecasts are obtained independently from a small group of experts. This group can be between five and twenty experienced and suitable experts and poll them for their forecasts and reasons (Armstrong J.S, et.al, 2005). The experts never actually meet and typically do not know who the other panel members are (Wisniewski, 2006). After each round, the experts forecasts summed up and reported back to the experts (Armstrong J.S., 2006). The cycle can go on from a second to a third round and so on if appropriate (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Typically the Delphi method is used to produce a narrow range of forecasts rather than a single view of the future (Wisniewski, 2006). Market surveys Logic dictates that the most sensible approach to preparing a sales forecast might be ask ones customers (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). It is a simple matter to ask customers what their likely purchases will be for the period it is desired to forecast. So companies make surveys in order to collect these data from customers and then by analysing their answers produce the forecasts. This method is best used when the number of users is small, when they are likely to state their purchasing intention with reasonable accuracy and when the forecaster knows the extent of competition in the market-place and the companys likely share of the total market (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985, p. 131). Historical Analogy Under limited circumstances it may be possible to produce forecasts based on observed patterns of some similar variable in the past (Wisniewski, 2006).The concept of this method based on the product life-cycle which assumes that the most of the products follow the reasonable stages of introduction, growth, maturity, decline (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985) as the figure 2.1 shows. The product life-cycle theory has been applied in many industries and has proved useful in identifying future strategies for products and services (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Maturity Sales/Profit Decline Growth Introduction Time Figure 2.1: Product life cycle Source: (Wisniewski M. (2006), Quantitative Methods for Decision Makers (4th Edition), Prentice Hall, p. 295) 2.7 Time Horizon Forecasts can be classified in terms of time span they cover in the future. The basic types of time horizon forecasts are long-term, medium-term and short-term (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.161). The long-term forecasts cover a time span of 3-10 years and they are used in the analysis of standard commitments and can be characterized as strategic decisions. The medium-term forecasts are made for one year to support production planning in the face of highly cyclical demand and can be characterized as tactical decisions. Finally short-term forecasts cover a time of one week to three months and they are used to control manufacturing levels and stock replenishment in the face of short demand variation. Short-term forecasts are concerned for operational decisions (Korpela J. et.al, 1996; Waters, 2003). 2.8 Forecast Error Inaccurate forecasts are the single most common problem that every company faces. Nowadays due to the rise of the technology there are many events or areas that can be predicted such as 1) seasonality, 2) average relationships, 3) average cyclical patterns, 4) emerging technological trends and their influence and many other factors. But on the other hand because future is something unknown there are always situations that are very difficult to predict such as 1) special events, 2) competitive actions or reactions, 3) sales of new products, 4) the start and depth of recessions, 5) changes in trends, 6) changes in relationships or attitudes, 7) and technological innovations (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Golden J. et.al, 1994, points out three ways-aspects that can reduce the forecast error by taking into consideration the followings: Knowing the market: take the pulse of those who will actually buy and use the product. Be independent. Deflate forecasts for a margin of safety. It is generally known that every forecaster knows that he/she should measure forecast errors. Most of them do it however only for the reason to see how well they are doing. The important is to measure forecasting errors for two primary reasons: to learn from them and to manage demand risk (Lapide L., 2007). Regarding learning from them, forecasts errors should be analyzed to access where errors are too high or have gotten to large so that more focus can be placed in those areas for improvement (Lapide L., 2007). Regarding managing for demand risk, users of the forecast need to know how accurate they are in order to leverage risk management strategies designed to mitigate the risk (Lapide L., 2007). 2.9 Forecasting methods criteria When carrying out market demand forecasts, one often confronts with the problem of the inappropriate selection of a forecast method. It should be noted that in every actual forecast situation methods have their advantages and disadvantages, hence, it is important to define and analyse forecast method selection criteria (Pilinkiene, 2008). In order to select the appropriate method several criteria should be considered such as a) forecast accuracy degree, b) time span, c) amount of necessary initial data, d) forecast costs, e) result implementation and applicability level (Pilinkiene, 2008). According to Cox and Mentzer study (Table 2.1) (1984;cited by Mentzer and Kahn,1995) identified accuracy (92%) and credibility (92%) as top criteria for choosing a forecast technique. Criteria Sample Size % Important Accuracy 205 92 Credibility 206 92 Customer Service Performance 199 77 Ease of Use 206 75 Inventory Turns 198 55 Amount of Data Required 205 46 Cost 205 41 Return on Investment 199 35 Table 2.1: Top criteria for choosing a forecast technique (Source: Mentzer J.T Kahn K.B., (1995) Forecasting Technique Familiarity, Satisfaction, Usage, and Application, Journal of Forecasting, vol.14, p.474) Moreover another important research made by Yokum and Armstrong (1995) (Table 2.2) which based in a survey among 322 experts in forecasting identified the most important criteria. There were 94 researchers, 55 educators, 133 practitioners (i.e. forecast preparers) and 40 decision makers (i.e. forecast users). From this study accuracy was the dominant criterion -rated 6.2 on average-, next was timeliness in providing forecasts, and cost savings resulting from improved decisions. After that five other criteria rated based on ease such as ease of use. Mean agreement rating Question Avg. Decision Maker (DM) Practitioner (PR) Educator (ED) Researcher (RS) Accuracy 6.20 6.20 6.10 6.09 6.39*DM,PR,ED Timeliness in providing forecasts 5.89 5.97 5.92 5.82 5.87 Cost savings resulting from improved decisions 5.75 5.97 5.62 5.66 5.89 Ease of interpretation 5.69 5.82 5.67 5.89 5.54 Flexibility 5.58 5.85*PR,ED,RS 5.63 5.35 5.54 Ease in using available data 5.54 5.79 5.44 5.52 5.59 Ease of use 5.54 5.84*PR,RS 5.39 5.77*PR, RS 5.47 Ease of implementation 5.41 5.80*PR,ED,RS 5.36 5.55 5.24 Incorporating judgmental input 5.11 5.15 5.19 5.12 4.98 Reliability of confidence int. 4.90 5.05 4.81 4.70 5.09 Development cost(computer, human resources) 4.86 5.10 4.83 5.02 4.70 Maintenance cost (data storage, modifications) 4.73 4.72 4.73 4.75 4.71 Theoretical relevance 4.40 3.72 4.43*DM 4.20*DM 4.81*DM *denotes significantly higher ratings (p Table 2.2: Importance of criteria in selecting a forecasting technique (scale- 1 unimportant to 7 important) (Source: Yokum, J. J.S. Armstrong (1995) Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods, International Journal of Forecasting, 11, p. 593) 2.10 Planning Practices for Improving Forecasting After the analysis of the available forecasting methods and their selection criteria the next step is to propose some planning practices that can improve forecasting, It is known that these practices are not necessary best fit with every company and before someone wants to implement them an evaluation of companys core practices should be made. That can help a company to identify its advantages and disadvantages in order to survive in todays tough market environment and with the help of these practices can become the leader of the market. The complexity and uncertainty that exist in the todays business environment creates many problems to every function of a company. This also affects supply chain management which its initial target is to meet the needs of the final consumer by supplying the right product at the right place, time and price (Helms et.al, 2000). This complexity elevates forecasting accuracy and effectiveness as an elusive target. Many companies are, however, making significant, improvements by using an approach that supports and facilitates the concept of supply chain management by improving the forecasting practices (Helms et.al, 2000). So the planning practices that can improve forecasting are: a) Sales and Operation Planning (SOP) and b) Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR). These practices will be analyzed and explained in the following subchapters. 2.10.1 Sales and Operation Planning****FRAMEWORKS*** Sales and Operating Planning (SOP), is a cross-functional process that brings together teams of individuals on a routine basis to plan for where businesses are going on a operational/tactical basis and is considered a supply chain best practice (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005; Lapide, 2006). Sales and Operations Planning (SOP) has emerged as a powerful decision-making tool for executives and managers (Wallace et.al, 2005). It is a set of decision making process that 1) balances demand and supply, 2) links a companys day-to-day operations with its strategic and business plans and 3) integrates operational planning with financial planning (Wallace et.al, 2005). ***ÃŽâ„ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ £ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ©ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ £ ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÅ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ÃŽÂ £ÃƒÅ½ÃƒÅ½-ΜΑ ÃŽâ€Å"ÃŽâ„ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÂ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ 1,2,3** Each team member brings to the process a specific perspective during the development of supply and demand plans/forecasts (Lapide, 2006). Each SOP team member may have to generate, review and revise demand forecasts that reflect the aspects of a business with which they are most familiar (Lapide, 2006). SOP, leverages Supply-Demand Matching, an operating principle that involves balancing supply and demand over time in order to satisfy demand, optimize operations, and minimize wasted resources (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005). Under an SOP process, a companys sales and marketing plans are aligned with the plans of operations, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement in order to jointly optimize future demand-supply operations. It is a process from which the final constrained and unconstrained demand forecasts are developed and then used to drive operational planning activities (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005). ***Ά¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ £ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ÃƒÅ½-ÃŽÂ £ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÂ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ ÃŽâ„ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¤, ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽâ€Å"ÃŽÂ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¨ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ©*** The major input for the implementation of SP is the behavioural change of the people inside the organisation and is regarded to be as the most difficult element (Wallace, 2010). Other elements such as software tools, data and the specifics of the process may be essential, but theyre of far less significance. Taking this as a standard the point is that a successful implementation of SOP is a matter of change management. The amount of change is significant. Its not a matter of doing something better; its about doing things differently-to be better (Wallace, 2010). In order to understand SOP process in is important to present and explain the four fundamentals which are demand and supply, volume and mix figure 2.2. Volume (How much?, Rates, Product families) Supply Demand Mix (Which ones?, Timing/Sequence, Products/SKUs) Figure 2.2: The Four Fundamentals Source: Wallace T. Stahl B., (2005), Sales Operation Planning- The Next Generation, pp.6) SOP is a tool to balance demand and supply at the volume level. It deals with rates of sales and production, aggregate inventories and backlogs. It is typically expressed in product families or other aggregate groupings; it answers the question how much. At the mix level the matter is about with which individual products run first, second, third and which customer orders will ship when. It answers the question which ones giving the details (Wallace et.al, 2005). Another important mission for SOP is to tie together the companys operational plans with its financial plans. The financial plans represent, critically essential evident, to deliver X amount of revenue and profit dollars for a specific period of the year. These commitments are made to some very important people such as the corporate office, the board of the directors, the Wall Street and ultimately to owners of the business: the stockholders (Wallace et.al, 2005). On the other hand, the operational plans focus on things like procurement, production, sales, inventories and so on. When these operational plans are not aligned with the business and financial plans, there is a detach. (Wallace et.al, 2005). 2.10.1.1 Sales and Operation Planning Benefits Implementing SOP in a business the benefits will be essential and immediate. These benefits can be categorized into two groups, the hard benefits and the soft benefits. As far as it concerns the hard benefits these can be the following (Wallace et.al, 2005): Higher Customer Service, by developing the ability to ship on time and complete at a higher rate than before SOP. Lower Finished Goods Inventories, by doing a better job of shipping to customers with lower, not higher, inventories. Shorter Customer Lead Times, through an enhanced ability to manage the customer order backlog and keep it at a low level. More Stable Production Rates, due to the ability to predict the future shifts in customer demand sooner and thus make smaller adjustments to production rates. Higher Productivity, by avoiding extreme fluctuations in production volumes with their attendant layoffs and rehiring. Moving on to the soft benefits these include (Wallace et.al, 2005): Enhanced Teamwork, at both the executive and operating management levels, resulting from the holistic view of the business that SOP provides. Better Decisions, by decreasing effort and time. SOP offers, increases effectiveness which improves the quality and the structure of decisions on demand and supply issues. Greater Accountability and Control, due to the backward and forward visibility that SOP provides. 2.10.1.2 Examples of Implementing Sales and Operation Planning a) Coca-Cola Midi (CCM): In France there is a manufacturing regional plant that produces -over 700 SKUs, encompassing 79,000 tons- soft drinks concentrates and juice beverages bases for Europe, Asia and Africa. SOP was implemented at CCM when the plant was started in 1991. SOP is for CCM the backbone for planning, manufacturing and supply-chain activities. SOP enables disciplined and formalized communications across the company, and between all the suppliers, partners and customers. Continuous improvement in customer service, inventory management, obsolete products, and freight costs were some of SOP benefits after the implementation. (www.partnersforexcellence.com). b) ***ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ΒΑΆºÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ΑΆºÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ºÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ ÃŽÂ  ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â€ž ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Å"ΜΑ*** 2.10.2 Collaborative Planning Forecasting Replenishment (CPFR) Collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment (CPFR), is a revolutionary business practices where in trading partners use technology and a standard set of business processes for Internet-based collaboration on forecasts and plans for replenishment (KJR Consulting, 2002). CPFR can be categorized into these collaborative business practices that enabled trading partners to have visibility into ones other critical demand, order forecasts and promotional forecasts. The objective of CPFR is to improve efficiencies across the extended supply chain, reducing inventories, improving service levels and increasing sales (KJR Consulting, 2002). Wal-Mart and Warner-Lambert embarked on the first CPFR pilot, involving Listerine products, in 1991. In their pilot, Wal-Mart and Warner-Lambert used special CPFR software to exchange forecasts. Supportive data, such as past sales trends, promotion plans, and even the weather, were often transferred in an iterative fashion to allow them to converge on a single forecast in case their original forecast differed (Avin Y., 2001). As a result of CPFR implementation Warner-Lamberts service levels increased from 87% to 98%, while the lead times to deliver the product decreased from 21 to 11 days (Boone T. et.al, 2000).***ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ΆÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ÃŽ-ΜΆ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ÃƒÅ½Ã…“ÃŽ-ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â€ž ¢ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ** Also this pilot was very successful, having as a result an increase in Listerine sales and better fill rates, having also a reduction on inventory investment (Avin Y., 2001). The key idea behind CPRF is that the trading partners (retailer and manufacturer), work together in order to produce a common forecast. Both the retailer and the manufacturer collect market intelligence on product information, store programs etc., and share it in real-time over the Internet. In most cases, the retailer owns the sales forecast; if the manufacturer agrees with the forecast, automatic replenishments are made to the retailer via predetermined business contracts so that a specific level of inventory or customer service is maintained (Boone T. et.al, 2000). In the case that the retailer and the manufacturer cant agree on the forecasts or if there are exceptions, such as unusual demand season or a store opening, the forecasts are reconciled manually. An important point is before the implementation of CPFR when the partners should agree on several key questions such as how to measure service levels and stock-out, how to set inventory and service targets (Boone T. et.al, 2000). The difference between CPFR and other business process tools and initiatives, such as Efficient Consumer Response (ECR), is that the other models require critical mass before any benefits are realized. Promotional plans and the business goals are the most famous areas of collaboration between the trading partners. After that order/replenishment plans, inventory status and sales forecast seems to be very critical themes for this relationship. 2.10.2.1 CPFR Process Model ***ÃŽÂ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ ÃŽÂ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã… ¸ ÃŽÅ ¾ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ΑН ΒΠ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ © ÃŽÅ ¡ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¤ÃƒÅ½Ã¢â€ž ¢*** 2.10.2.2 CPFR Benefits There have been recorded and identified many benefits of CPFR. The CPFR documents that are available on the VICS Committee sites show that there is a 30%-40% improvement in forecast accuracy, significant increases in customer service, sales increase between 15% and 60% and reduction in days of supply 15%-20% (Sheffi Y., 2002). AMR Research (2001) reported a range of benefits that came through CPFR implementation in many companies and there are divided into retailer benefits and manufacturer benefits as it is shown in table 2.3. Retailer Benefits Typical Improvement Better store shelf stock rates 2% to 8% Lower inventory levels 10% to 40% Higher sales 5% to 20% Lower logistics costs 3% to 4% Manufacturer Benefits Typical Improvement Lower inventory levels 10% to 40% Faster replenishment cycles 12% to 30% Higher sales 2% to 10% Better customer service 5% to 10% Table 2.3: Typical CPFR Benefits Source: Sheffi Y.,(2002), The value of CPFR, RIRL Conference Proceedings As far as it concerns the retailers benefits the highest is the reduction in inventory levels which has a drop from 10% to 40%. After that the increase in sales from 5% to 20% is another essential benefit. On the other hand the manufacturers benefits relate again with a elimination in inventory levels from 10% to 40% and also it offers a faster replenishment cycles from 12% to 30%. In accordance with a questionnaire constructed by KJR Consulting and sent via e-mail to 130 GMA (Grocery Manufacturers of America) companies that have implement CPFR best practice a great range of benefits raised that can indicate the importance of CPRF for the modern complexity businesses. These benefits have been categorized in the following Figure 2.1. Figure 2.4: Anticipated Benefits of CPFR Sou

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1) Globalization has been enabled by: A) innovation. B) technological progress. C) increased population. D) all of the above. E) A and B are correct. 2) Which of the following events interrupted Globalization 2. 0? A) The Great Depression B) World War I C) World War II D) All of the above. 3) During Globalization 1. 0, ________ were the primary entities globalizing. A) individuals and small groups B) families C) countries D) companies 4) During Globalization 3. 0, ________ were the primary entities globalizing. A) individuals and small groups B) families C) countries D) companies 5) The fall of the Berlin Wall:A) marked the end of the Cold War. B) opened up new markets for products. C) gave companies access to a talented labor pool. D) All of the above. 6) The first mainstream web browser was called: A) Netscape B) Opera. C) Firefox. D) Internet Explorer. 7) De facto standards contributing to Globalization 3. 0 include all of the following EXCEPT:   A) Microsoft Word. B) Adobe Acro bat. C) PayPal. D) eBay. 8) Web sites allowing users to add, remove, or edit content are called:   A) wikis. B) blogs. C) browsers. D) online diaries. 9) Wal-Mart has recently introduced ________ tags into their supply chain.A) price B) anti-theft C) RFID D) CSID 10) Companies setting up entire factories in China is an example of: A) offshoring. B) outsourcing. C) in-sourcing. D) on-shoring. 11) ________ refers to the delegation of a company's core operations to a subcontractor that specializes in that operation. A) Offshoring B) Outsourcing C) In-sourcing D) On-shoring 12) Assembly plants located on the Mexican side of the U. S. -Mexican border are called:   A) Mexinanitas. B) Maquiladoras. C) Manufactorias. D) Fabricados. 13) Which of the following is not a service that is being outsourced? A) Preparation of tax returnsB) Telephone support C) Reading of X-rays D) All of the activities above can be outsourced. 14) Which of the Asian outsourcing destination countries has the hig hest relative geopolitical risk? A) China B) Malaysia C) Philippines D) Thailand 15) Which of the following American outsourcing destination countries has the highest English proficiency? A) Argentina B) Brazil C) Costa Rica D) Mexico 16) Which of the following is a reason for companies to outsource business activities? A) To reduce time to market B) To increase process efficiencies C) To outsource noncore activities D) All of the above. 7) ________, the reversal of outsourcing to overseas locations, encompasses the use of locations closer to the home country in terms of geographical, political, linguistic, economic, or cultural distance. A) Inshoring. B) Nearshoring. C) Offshoring. D) Backshoring. 18) Which of the following is NOT considered a geoeconomic challenge of operating in a digital world? A) Demographic B) Expertise C) Time zone differences D) Internet access 19) The EU data protection directive is an example of which type of challenge? A) Political system B) Regulatory C) Data sharing D) Individual freedom 0) Differences in network infrastructures throughout the world are an example of which type of challenge? A) Internet access and individual freedom B) Infrastructure related reliability C) Regulatory D) Political system 21) ________ are government-imposed fees to regulate the flow of goods and services in and out of a country   A) Export regulations B) Embargoes C) Tariffs D) Quotas 22) A(n) ________ is a type of export regulation concerning the flow of goods and services, typically limiting (or prohibiting) trade with one particular country. A) export regulation B) embargo C) tariff D) quota 23) The U. S. overnment attempts to isolate the Cuban government economically using: A) export regulations. B) embargoes. C) tariffs. D) quotas. 24) ________ are directed at limiting the export of certain goods to other countries. A) Export regulations B) Embargoes C) Tariffs D) Quotas 25) Products such as missile or encryption technology underlie: A) expor t regulations. B) embargoes. C) tariffs. D) quotas. 26) ________ are regulations permitting foreign businesses to export only a certain number of products to a specific country. A) Export regulations B) Embargoes C) Tariffs D) Quotas 27) Foreign companies such as Toyota are producing goods in the U.S. to minimize the effect of:   A) export regulations. B) embargoes. C) tariffs. D) quotas. 28) The EU data protection directive limits: A) Internet freedom. B) personal rights to access data. C) transborder data flows. D) electronic commerce. 29) Which of the flowing countries is NOT considered â€Å"enemy of the Internet† by the â€Å"Reporters without Borders†? A) Belarus B) Thailand C) Vietnam D) North Korea 30) Which of the following outsourcing destinations has the lowest average annual salary for experienced programmers? A) India B) Philippines C) Malaysia D) China 31) Dimensions on which cultures differ include:A) uncertainty avoidance. B) concept of time. C) life focus. D) all of the above. 32) ________ is a cultural characteristic emphasizing the importance of the collective/group over the individual in society. A) Collectivism B) Power distance C) Uncertainty avoidance D) Group think 33) ________ is a cultural characteristic that reflects the extent to which a culture has a longer- or shorter-term orientation. A) Life focus B) Concept of time C) Time focus D) Punctuality 34) ________ is a cultural characteristic emphasizing the importance of the individual over the collective/group in society. A) Life focus B) IndividualismC) Selfishness D) Egocentrism 35) ________ is a cultural characteristic related to how different societies view authority and hierarchical structures. A) Power distance B) Obedience C) Obesity D) Authoritarianism 36) ________ reflects degree to which a society is characterized by masculine qualities, such as assertiveness, or by feminine characteristics, such as nurturance. A) Masculinity/femininity B) Assertiveness C) N urturance D) Life focus 37) ________ is a cultural characteristic related to the risk-taking nature of a culture. A) Risk aversion B) Uncertainty avoidance C) Fear of future consequences D) Risk seeking 8) ________ reflects the extent to which a culture focuses on the quantity versus the quality of life. A) Life focus B) Life center C) Quantity of life orientation D) Quality of life orientation 39) Which of the following countries ranks highest in individualism? A) Australia B) Austria C) Mexico D) Peru 40) Which of the following is most likely to be considered a domestic company? A) Insurance company B) Car manufacturer C) Consumer goods company D) Barber shop 41) A ________ business strategy is best suited for operation in markets differing widely. A) multidomestic B) global C) transnational D) All strategies are equally well suited. 2) Which of the following is a weakness of the multidomestic business strategy? A) Differing product offerings limit economies of scale B) Inability to react to local market conditions C) Difficult to manage D) Personnel overhead 43) Which of the following is a weakness of the global business strategy? A) Differing product offerings limit economies of scale B) Inability to react to local market conditions C) Difficult to manage D) Personnel overhead 44) Which of the following is a weakness of the transnational business strategy? A) Differing product offerings limit economies of scale B) Inability to react to local market conditionsC) Difficult to manage D) Personnel overhead 45) A multidomestic information systems strategy is characterized by ________ systems   A) centralized B) decentralized C) distributed D) homogeneous 46) A global information systems strategy is characterized by ________ systems   A) centralized B) decentralized C) distributed D) homogeneous 47) A transnational information systems strategy is characterized by ________ systems   A) centralized B) decentralized C) distributed D) homogeneous 48) A _______ _ information systems strategy is characterized by multiple networks between the home office and the subsidiaries.A) global B) transnational C) multinational D) hybrid 49) A ________ information systems strategy is characterized by local databases. A) global B) transnational C) multidomestic D) hybrid 50) A ________ information systems strategy is characterized by data sharing between the home office and the subsidiaries. A) global B) transnational C) multinational D) hybrid Chap 2: 1E 2D 3C 4A 5D 6A 7D 8A 9C 10A 11C 12B 13D 14C 15C 16D 17B 18D 19C 20B 21C 22B 23B 24A 25A 26D 27D 28C 29B 30A 31D 32A 33B 34B 35A 36A 37B 38A 39A 40D 41A 42A 43B 44C 45B 46A 47C 48A 49C 50A

Archetypes in High School Movies Essay

David Denby explains the typical high school movies in detail in his article called â€Å"High-School Confidential: Notes in Teen Movies†. According to Denby, there are three character archetypes in high school movies; the popular girl, the jock, and the outsider. For some reason these movies usually take place around the time of prom, where miss popular expects to be crowned for her? popularity. Denby described the first character type, the popular girl, as usually a tall slender blonde cheerleader that has two or three friends identical to her. Together these girls ruled the school, not necessarily because everyone liked them, but because everyone was afraid of them. Of course, this girl expects to be to be voted most popular by her class at prom. Of course, the popular girl has a boyfriend, who fits in the jock archetype. He is head of the football team, a big time prankster, quiet in class, but king of the halls and cafeteria. Sometimes, as one of his pranks or bets, he may ask an outsider to the prom for humiliation purposes. The outsider the jock asks to prom is the third character Denby explains in this sentence; â€Å"The kids who cannot be the beautiful ones, or make out with them, or avoid being insulted by them-these are the heroes of the teen movies, the third in the trio of character types†. She is the girl with intellectual or artistic ability, always dropping her books, wearing outdated clothes, silent or stuttering in front of good-looking boys, and cannot hide her desire to be accepted. Now if the outsider was a male, the jock obviously wouldn’t be asking him out to prom, so the storyline would have to be a bit different. Now, not every high-school movie has these two characters, but they are common and well-known in such movies. Also, not every jock in a movie is as arrogant as described; they can be played as sweet and innocent, but these characters are not nearly as familiar as the ones Denby describes. Now think about the writers and directors of these movies. Do you think they are interested in the â€Å"because it sells† factor, or do you think their high school status is involved? Denby talks about how Hollywood writers and producers more than likely fell in the outsider’s category. Maybe this is why often the stories twist in high-school movies. The outsiders become the heroes, join the system, and better it. The system appears to be more like the real world, where appearance doesn’t beat achievement. Movies like She’s all that, and Never Been Kissed fit Denby’s American high-school movie character archetypes perfectly. On the other hand, movies that contradict Denby’s archetypes include Clueless, Romy and Michelle’s High School Reunion, and Election. In Clueless, the rich blonde is actually a good person with good qualities. Romy and Michelle’s High School Reunion might even be criticizing the teen-movie genre altogether. In Election, a middle-class overachieving girl works all the time to be on top, but still feels excluded, which breaks every cliche in the book. Denby analyzed three specific archetype characters for high-school movies, but also found that there are some that break the mold. The commonly known archetypes writers and producers often use are the popular girl, the jock, and the outsider. They themselves probably find interest making high-school movies because they were also stuc.

Teratogen Psychological Effect on Fetal Development

1 The course of pregnancy is both very rewarding and challenging. The end result is a beautiful creation and enjoinment of two people. The fragile aspect of newborn life is not the first time a mother faces protecting the child. The beginning of a successful foundation for life starts the second a women becomes pregnant. Prenatally, many different toxins can create issues surrounding the physical and mental development of a baby. Some of the toxins are very obvious, where many fly under the radar. The toxins a pregnant woman takes in may cause issues with the development of a child. Awareness about the possibility of teratogens causing development issues is needed to ensure a safe, normal, and sociable future for the children. When†¦show more content†¦Fetal alcohol Syndrome is one of the most prevalent disorders known to cause mental and development problems in babies whose mothers drink excessively during pregnancy. The use of excessive alcohol during pregnancy is t he sole cause of FAS. A less severe form of FAS is Fetal Alcohol Effects. FAE is when alcohol is moderately used during pregnancy. The effects are usually not as bad, but still have an effect on the baby’s development. Since the consumption of alcohol is the responsible factor for the defects and psychological issues, not drinking ensures a child will not get the syndrome. The total preventability of FAS makes it hard to believe that children still get the syndrome. But, with that said, women who are alcoholics are sick themselves and stopping because they know it will corrupt the development of their babies is not sometimes enough. The dangerousness of consuming alcohol during pregnancy starts in the early stage of development. When the mother drinks excessively during the organ developmental stage, the physical malformation especially in facial features begins. FAS children have very noticeable facial features that are directly related to the alcohol. The period of time when a mother drinks excessively can also affect the central nervous system that causes the neurological and mental problems. Central nervous systemShow MoreRelatedNature Nurture Debate922 Words   |  4 Pagesexperience. Nevertheless, this extreme way of thinking is now long outdated, and it is clear that both nature and nurture have great effect on our intellectual development. The question now lies in just how much impact each has on an individual. However, the specifics in this debate are often lacking in regard to the very important environmental variables. These psychological variables, such as parental attention or early introduction to reading are undeniably influential, yet features of the physicalRead MoreThe Responsibility of Becoming Parents1506 Words   |  7 Pageschild prenatal development, which will later have some alarming consequences on the child’s postnatal and adult life. What the mother do during her pregnancy affects many processes that are li nk to the development of the child in general. Therefore it is the parents’ responsibilities to detect and eliminate any hazard condition and prevent any illnesses, which may indirectly affect the unborn child. There are many environmental factors that can affect the prenatal development of a child. TheseRead MoreMental Illness : An Essential Time For Neurobiological Development1364 Words   |  6 Pagesinfluence the development of mental illness. 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For example, the change of goals during the life duration. 2) Stability versus change: The second debate asks whether our personality traits beingRead MorePsychology: Questions on Cognitive Development1557 Words   |  7 Pages__A__ 1. The briefest period of prenatal development is the: a. germinal stage b. embryonic stage c. fetal stage d. baby-making stage _C___ 2. Motor development involves the acquisition of: a. sensory abilities including hearing and taste b. reflexive movements and abilities c. the muscular control necessary for coordinated movement d. language and speech patterns necessary for communication _A___ 3. Piaget called the incorporation of new objects into existing knowledge: a. assimilation Read MoreEffects Of Stress On Prenatal Development1921 Words   |  8 PagesEffects of Stress on Prenatal Development Introduction To best comprehend human life from conception to death, it is important to have an understanding of the foundations of human development. 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Unlike the report in 1968 that wasn’t a success, this report in the British medical journal, The Lancet, triggered a great amount of reporters of Fetal AlcoholRead MoreThe Theory Of Human Life Development Essay1576 Words   |  7 Pagesmultidisciplinary aspects of development that encompass and influence someone’s life, whether it be biological, socioemotional or c ognitive. We have many concepts of gauging an individual’s age including psychological, biological, social and most commonly used or expressed, chronological. These concepts together, including social, economic, cultural and chronological similarities and differences, make up our developmental timeline, with everyone’s being unique. Theories on development to make sense of such

Porter s Five Forces Analysis - 2045 Words

TABLE 2: PORTER S FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS Threat of New Entrants Threat of Substitution Threat of new entrants is high, as the consumer preferences for the healthy menu is growing in the industry. The threat of substitution is moderate to high, based on the consumer choices of the brand. The economic factors and the target marketing strategies of the brands play important role in encouraging the threat of substitution. Competitive Rivalry The competitive rivalry is high due to the emergence of the number of competitors in the industry. Though, the regulations for the safety and health considerations have increased, but the presences of the broader customer markets have lowered the entry barriers. Bargaining Power of Buyers Bargaining Power of Suppliers The bargaining power of the buyers (consumers) is high, based on the increasing number of the competitors, substitutes, and the fluctuations in the consumer behavior, preferences, and demands. The bargaining power of the suppliers is moderate in the fast food industry. In case of McDonald, the chain is having potential and loyal suppliers, and the wide distribution, based on franchised structure also supports the supplier businesses. MARKETING PLAN MARKETING OBJECTIVES To increase the global market share by 20%, within two years after the launch of the healthier food menu. To increase the profitability share by 30% within one year sale of the healthier food menu items. To increase the promotions by 20% forShow MoreRelatedPorter s Five Force Analysis1465 Words   |  6 PagesMichael Porter s five force analysis of Starbucks coffee shows the intensity of the five strengths of the firm, and the bases of these powers. Starbucks coffee s prosperity shows its viability in tending to these outside elements in its industrial surroundings. 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SWOT can be defined as a more general and overall assessment, while the Five Forces model is more single growth decisionRead MoreInternational Industry Analysis Porter s Five Forces3220 Words   |  13 PagesInter-Industry Analysis – Porter’s Five Forces The Strategic fit approach to management, describes that the prospect of profitability depends largely on the firm positioning itself in an â€Å"attractive industry† the attractiveness and therefore profitability is said to depend upon how competitive the industry is, â€Å"a highly competitive industry is less attractive and less profitable than an industry where the competition is less intense.† (www.netmba.com) According to Porter’s Five Forces Framework â€Å"attractivenessRead MorePorter s Five Forces Analysis And Strategy Article Analysis1284 Words   |  6 PagesPorter’s five forces analysis and strategy article analysis Name Course Tutor Institution Date 1. What is your take-away of this article? 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The easy will explain the reasons the already recommended tool will work best for global strategy, provide evidence to support the decision, refute the people who chose an additional tool rather than one of the tool selected, and provide a brief analysis of the market using those tools (Winters, 2015).

The Cardiovascular System

Question: How does structure Aid function of the human cardiovascular system? Answer: Introduction: Every living organism depends on interstitial fluid as a source of nutrients and oxygen and as a mode of disposal of waste materials. The blood plays a vital role in supplying oxygen to every organ of the body as well as carries away the waste materials from the organs. The continuous flow of blood is maintained by heart and it pumps the blood throughout a network of blood vessels. The human heart consists of four chambers that pump the blood to lungs in order to purify the deoxygenated blood and supplies oxygenated blood to the body (Nishikimi, 2011). The detail of the entire cardiovascular system is described below: 1. The structure and function of vascular system: There are three types of blood vessels in the human body and they are arteries, veins, and capillaries. The arteries carry oxygenated blood from the heart towards the target organs and they eventually decrease their size forming capillaries to the organ and the deoxygenated blood from the organs are carried away to the heart by the veins. However, the largest artery in the body is aorta and the largest vein is vena cava. The circulatory system is known as closed system as the blood in enclosed in the heart or in blood vessels and always following through one direction, i.e., Heart (ventricles) - Arteries - Capillaries - Organ- Veins - Heart (atrium) Source: (Nishikimi, 2011) The arteries and veins are made up of three layers known as inner epithelial tissue, middle smooth muscle, and outer connective tissue. These layers provide elasticity and strength to the vessels. The walls of the arteries are thicker that of veins and the three layers help to withstand the high blood pressure coming from the heart. The artery wall expands when the blood passes through it and relaxes to spring back to prevent backflow; this is known as secondary circulation and reduces the load of heart. The pulmonary arteries are the only arteries that carry deoxygenated blood (Mizuguchi, 2010). The arteries get branched to networks known as capillaries and they have very large surface area but very thin walls with only one epithelial layer. The capillaries are narrow and the blood pressure is also slow down allowing the diffusion to take place in the organs. The deoxygenated blood is then carried away to the heart by the veins and its path is through the skeletal muscles were the blood flow is restricted by valves so that the blood flow could occur against the gravity. 2. The Structure and function of human heart: The heart is cone shaped situated within the sternum and tilted to the left. The walls of the heart are made up of three tissues, outer and inner epithelial and middle cardiac muscle. The cardiac muscle respires aerobically and hence, ensures plenty of oxygen through coronary artery and consists of rich mitochondria. The heart is covered by a protective membrane known as pericardium that consists of pericardium fluid, which reduces the friction among the cardiac muscles (Fa-Po, 2015). Source: (Mizuguchi, 2010) The heart consists of four chambers, known as right atrium and right ventricle; and left atrium and left ventricle. The right side of the lungs receives deoxygenated blood from the body though the superior vena cava that brings blood from the head and arms and inferior vena cava from the rest of the body. The vena cava empties the deoxygenated blood to the right atrium when the heart relaxes and eventually when the heart contracts the right artrio-venticular (AV) valve opens and the blood moves from right atrium to the right ventricle. This value is known as tricuspid valve and makes the sound lub on closing and prevents the backflow of the blood when the heart relaxes as a result when the right ventricle contracts the pulmonary valve opens and the blood flows to the pulmonary artery to the lungs. The pulmonary valve prevents the backflow of the blood and makes a sound dup (Fa-Po, 2015). The oxygenated blood leaves the lungs and enters to the left atrium though the pulmonary vein that is the only vein to carry oxygenated blood. When the left atrium contract the blood flow to the left ventricle through the left AV valve known as bicuspid valve and it prevents the backflow of the blood. When the left ventricle contracts the blood flows to the aorta through the aortic valve that carries oxygenated blood throughout the body. When the blood enters aorta, its walls expands that helps to detect the pulse in the body (Kodani, 2015). 3. The Heartbeat: The heart rate is also known as pulse that is the number of times an individuals heart beats per minute. The heart beats depends on individual to individual from their body size, age and condition of heart and also whether the individual is moving, sitting or meditating in an even temperature. When an individual is resting the heart beat rate is between 60 and 80 times per minute. When an individual does vigorous exercise, heart beat rate increases due to the need of oxygen and glucose by the cells and also removal of generated carbon dioxide from the cells (Kodani, 2015). 4. The Cardiac Cycle: The cardiac cycle is the sequence of events that takes place in one heart beat and the contraction of both atrium followed by the contraction of both ventricles. The heartbeat consists of two phase systole and diastole. The systole derives contraction and this occurs when the ventricles contract that closes the AV valve and simultaneously opens the semi lunar valve and eventually pumps the blood to the heart. The diastole derives relaxation and it occurs when the ventricles relax allowing the blood pressure to close the semi lunar valve and opening AV valve (Nademanee, 2010). Source: (Nademanee, 2010) The heart consists of a single muscle but it does not contract at once. The contraction spreads eventually throughout the heart by specialised cells known as Sino Atrial Node (SA node) present in the right atrium. These cells are also called natural pacemaker of the heart. The impulse of SA node spread through the right and left atrium causing both atriums to contract simultaneously (Mizuguchi, 2010). References: Fa-Po, C. (2015). Current and state of the art on the electrophysiologic characteristics and catheter ablation of arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy. Kodani, E. (2015). Early detection of atrial fibrillation is the first step to prevent cardiogenic stroke: Usefulness of B-type natriuretic peptide, 65. Mizuguchi, Y. (2010). Concentric left ventricular hypertrophy brings deterioration of systolic longitudinal, circumferential, and radial myocardial deformation in hypertensive patients with preserved left ventricular pump function. Nademanee, K. (2010). Catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation guided by complex fractionated atrial electrogram mapping of atrial fibrillation substrate. Nishikimi, T. (2011). Current biochemistry, molecular biology, and clinical relevance of natriuretic peptides.

The Beginning of it All Essay Example For Students

The Beginning of it All Essay Middle school the place where you either have the best or worst memories of your teenage years and for me, they were nothing to cherish. My friends became my worst enemies, everything I did became a mistake, I also became a victim of bullying. Everything that I once considered to be my greatest traits became my biggest flaws. Before Middle School, I was often told not to let negativity or negative people rent space in my head but all of that changed when I confessed my feelings to â€Å"him. His name was Michael ________, he was blessed with the most beautiful dark brown complexion, his eyes, a light shade of brown, had an undefinable sparkle to them, and he had the perfect smile to go along with his tall stature. Everything about Michael was alluring to me and my determination to tell him how I felt was overwhelming. My plan was to write him a letter and have a friend take it to him because I was too shy to do it myself. This plan of mine ended up being a horrible mistake. â€Å"Today is the day†, I told myself as I walked onto Armstrong Middle Schools vast campus. We will write a custom essay on The Beginning of it All specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now I had the letter in my hand, handwritten in my best cursive and enclosed in a tiny envelope that had â€Å"To Michael, From Jade† written on it. My good friend Jessica, whom I trusted to give to Michael and not to open, quickly swiped it out of my hand en route to complete the task at hand. As the day went on the anticipation of the outcome grew stronger and the little butterflies that I once kept quiet seemed to be fluttering around my stomach. As soon as the schools piercing dismissal bell rang I was the first one to the door, but when I walked out of class the atmosphere changed. â€Å"Thats her! , a few girls giggled as I walked past them. Completely unaware of who this â€Å"Her† was, I kept walking in search of my friend Jessica and anticipating good news. I spotted Jessica adjacent from the schools only flight of stairs and the look on her face made my heart dropped. â€Å"Im so sorry Jade, she said solemnly as she handed me the crumpled up piece of paper. Just when it seemed like things couldnt get any worse I opened the crumpled mess that I once treasured and noticed that he had written something in there. His words were cruel, they could have made the most confident person and secure person feel like a speck of dirt on the ground. It all hit me at once, my eyes swelled and my face glistened with freshly shed tears. That one bad day was the beginning of it all and worse was still to come. After that day rumors spread and the whole school looked at me the same way Michael did, ugly, pointing out all of my flaws. â€Å"Hurtful words are sharper than knives, they exceed the flesh and go right through the heart. † The embarrassment I had to endure for those two years still hides within me and every now and then I feel insecure and in doubt of my natural beauty. Till this day, the hurtful words of many of my peers still haunt me.